Yet another analyst reports better-than-expected sales of the latest iPhones and suggests that the most popular iPhone 11 model in the US is the 256GB iPhone 11 Pro.
We first saw Ming-Chi Kuo say that he was raising his expectations of 2019 iPhone shipments by five million, from 65-70M to 70-75M…
This optimistic stance was on Monday echoed by other analysts.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives was cited then as saying that iPhone 11 demand was ‘looking good,’ but has today gone more into specifics.
Instinet analysts, a division of Nomura bank, say that iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro demand is “ahead of last year’s launches.”
He too has raised his estimate of 2019 shipments.
The relatively competitive price of the base model iPhone 11 was said to be key in China.
We are seeing delivery times extend for iPhone 11 pre-orders across a range of colors and models this week, with our expectations now that iPhone launch units could exceed 75 million (original Street expectations were ~70 million) given underlying demand especially in China.
The base model iPhone 11 currently we estimate is seeing pre-order activity in the all-important China region that is “roughly double” from a year ago with XR as it appears the lower price points, dual camera functionality, and added colors is hitting the sweet spot for consumers that have been waiting to upgrade.
In the US, however, it’s the iPhone 11 Pro which seems to be the star of the show.
Especially with lower priced competition across the board, the price cut this time around was a smart strategy for Cupertino that is already paying dividends with many Chinese consumers looking at iPhone 11 as the right phone/price points/specs to upgrade which is key as Huawei and others look to capitalize on the current environment and convert Apple consumers to domestic Chinese smartphones in light of trade tensions.
With Apple now remaining silent about iPhone sales, analysts have three main ways of estimating demand. The crudest of these is how quickly and how far delivery dates slip. This provides only the vaguest of clues, as it only describes the relationship between demand and available supply. High demand and high supply could show the same degree of slippage as low demand and low supply.
In the US, pre-order activity continues to look robust thus far with particular order strength on some variants of the 256G iPhone 11 Pro as well as Space Gray and Gold colors.
Consumer panel data can provide a decent look at US orders in particular. There are market research companies with panels of millions of consumers. Some ask them directly whether or not they’ve ordered the new iPhone, while others incentivize consumers to allow their emails to be trawled for online purchase receipts.
Finally, supply-chain sources provide strong clues, as Apple will boost ongoing orders when demand is higher than expected, and reduce them when demand sinks beneath expectations. Combining all three signals can give a reasonably effective picture on whether things are looking good, bad or indifferent – as well as indications of the most popular iPhone 11 model.
